The battle for KwaZulu-Natal’s political future is intensifying, but the motion that could topple the province’s leadership is still stuck in procedural limbo.
The MK Party’s attempt to remove premier Thami Ntuli through a vote of no confidence, initially filed by MK Party MPL Inkosi Phathisizwe Chiliza on October 13, has yet to clear the first hurdle.
“The speaker has not received a corrected application,” Phathisa Mfuyo, spokesperson for the KZN legislature, told Sunday Times on Thursday.
“Once it’s in, legal advice will be sought — this would be the first time such a motion has been brought in the province and the speaker would have to follow the correct legal framework.”
Yet even without a confirmed date for the vote, the political stakes are soaring.
The MK Party, which stunned the political establishment by winning 45.35% of the vote and 37 seats in the 2024 general elections — just six months after its formation — has emerged as the dominant force in KwaZulu-Natal.
The ANC, once unshakable in the province, plummeted from 44 seats to 14, securing only 16.99% of the vote. The IFP, which currently leads the government of provincial unity, gained modestly from 13 to 15 seats with 18.07%. The DA held steady with 11 seats, while the EFF collapsed from eight seats to two. The National Freedom Party (NFP) retained its single seat.
With the 2026 local government elections looming, all parties are repositioning. The ANC is struggling to recover lost ground, the IFP is using its leadership of the GPU to entrench itself, and the MK Party is pushing to consolidate its momentum and assert full control of the province.
But the GPU’s fate may rest on one vote.
The NFP’s internal split has become a political fault line. Party president Ivan Barnes — widely seen as close to MK Party leader and former president Jacob Zuma — is expected to formally announce the NFP’s withdrawal from the GPU this weekend.
The days ahead will be crucial for the future of KwaZulu-Natal. Whether the current coalition survives or collapses will hinge on how parties navigate the next few moves — especially if the planned vote of no confidence goes ahead.
— Wayne Sussman, independent political analyst
However, the party’s only MEC, Cynthia Mbali Shinga, who serves as MEC for social development, is reportedly aligned with the GPU’s leadership and has not endorsed the pullout.
This division is not just symbolic — it’s potentially decisive. With the legislature finely balanced, the NFP’s single vote could tip the scales.
If Barnes’ stance prevails and the NFP backs the MK Party, the motion could succeed, toppling Ntuli and dismantling the GPU. If Shinga’s influence holds and the NFP supports the coalition or abstains, the GPU may survive — at least for now.
Though it is an open secret that various political parties inside and outside the GPU are holding talks behind the scenes, ANC provincial spokesperson Fanle Sibisi said his party remains formally committed to serving in the KZN GPU.
Attempts to reach Barnes for comment were unsuccessful. He responded via message that he was in a meeting and requested queries be sent via text, but did not reply to follow-ups.
“The days ahead will be crucial for the future of KwaZulu-Natal,” said independent political and elections analyst Wayne Sussman. “Whether the current coalition survives or collapses will hinge on how parties navigate the next few moves — especially if the planned vote of no confidence goes ahead.”
“The KZN GPU has been unstable from the start because the majority party, the MK Party, was excluded from government while smaller parties banded together to keep it out. In that setup, the NFP was always a wildcard — it held the single seat that separated the governing coalition from the opposition,“ he said.
“Politics is unpredictable, and we don’t know what trade-offs are being discussed behind closed doors. Both the ANC and the IFP could potentially form a coalition with the MK Party, but the DA has ruled out any deal. It would be difficult for the ANC to convince the MK Party to hand over the premiership, and equally unlikely for the IFP’s Thami Ntuli to retain it.”
Sussman noted that all major parties are already focused on the 2026 local government elections.
“The MK Party is expected to perform well, but signs from recent by-elections suggest it may struggle to maintain the momentum that made it the largest party in 2024.
“The IFP wants to preserve the status quo, using its leadership role in the GPU — especially the premiership — as proof it can govern. The ANC is in a tight corner. It’s regaining some support in by-elections, but not enough to avoid losing hundreds of councillors. The DA, which lost ground in 2024 compared to its 2021 local election performance, is aiming to rebuild in key municipalities like eThekwini, Msunduzi, KwaDukuza, and uMngeni — the only one where it won an outright majority in 2021.”
SACP provincial secretary Themba Mthembu, whose party is in alliance with the ANC and Cosatu, believes the ANC must reconsider its stance.
“It is very heartbreaking that the ANC finds itself in the situation it is, as we have been warning about this from the beginning. As painful as this is, we must approach this matter on principle.
“We have always said that the ANC’s participation in the KZN GPU and national GNU is derailing our path to fulfilling the aims of the national democratic revolution. Principle dictates that the majority party should be in power. If need be, the ANC must talk with the MK Party. On the other hand, the ANC should not be afraid to be in the opposition benches and wage the struggle from there,” Mthembu said.
Attempts to reach Chiliza were also unsuccessful. However, in his most recent public remarks, the MK Party MPL reaffirmed the party’s commitment to removing Ntuli, saying his government had “lost direction”.
Chiliza said the MK Party had filed the motion of no confidence because it no longer had faith in Ntuli’s leadership, and called for the speaker to convene an urgent sitting to debate the matter.
As KwaZulu-Natal braces for a political showdown, the outcome of the no-confidence vote could not only bring down the GPU but also redraw the province’s political map — setting the tone for the next electoral cycle.
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