The ‘10-year itch’ and women leading: Here’s what’s driving the surge in divorces in SA

The data shows that most women filing for divorce were ending their first marriage

Divorce
South Africa is seeing a clear shift in relationship patterns, with divorce statistics rising sharply, even as fewer people choose to marry. (123rf)

South Africa is seeing a clear shift in relationship patterns, with divorce statistics rising sharply, even as fewer people choose to marry.

This is according to the latest Marriages and Divorces 2024 report released by Statistics SA.

The report shows a notable rise in marital dissolutions with 24,202 divorces recorded in 2024, an 8.9% increase from 22,230 cases in 2023.

The figure also surpasses pre-pandemic levels, which stood at 23,710 in 2019.

“In 2024, a total of 24,202 divorces were granted across the country … signalling not only a rise in marital breakdowns but also deeper social changes within a constitutional democracy that has long championed gender equality,” said Stats SA.

It said the report showed a consistent feature of South Africa’s divorce landscape which remains unchanged as women are far more likely to initiate proceedings.

“Within this growing number of cases, women remain the dominant initiators of divorce. According to the Marriages and Divorces 2024 report released by Stats SA, wives filed for about 57.2% of all divorces granted in 2024. This trend, consistent in previous years, reflects a broader evolution in women’s autonomy and their access to legal avenues that protect their rights within marriage.”

Of the total divorces:

  • Wives initiated 13,853 cases (57.2%)
  • Husbands initiated 7,976 cases (33.0%)
  • Only 4.6% were jointly initiated

The data also shows that most women filing for divorce were ending their first marriage.

“A closer look at marital history shows that the majority of women filing for divorce were experiencing the end of their first marriage. In 2024, 89.,1% of female plaintiffs had been married once before initiating divorce proceedings. Only 6.8% had been married twice, while fewer than 1% (0.7%) had been married more than three times. A small proportion, 3.5%, did not specify how many times they had been married,” said Stats SA.

The report highlights a clear “danger zone” for marriages in South Africa which is the first decade.

Marriage duration data shows:

  • 41.7% of divorces occurred in marriages lasting less than 10 years
  • The highest share (26.7%) was among marriages lasting five to nine years
  • 15.1% of divorces involved marriages shorter than five years

“Marriage duration offers another perspective on the stability of relationships. The largest share of divorces with 6,451 cases, or 26.7% occurred in marriages that had lasted between five and nine years,” Stats SA said.

This trend reinforces what is often referred to as the “10-year itch”, where relationships face heightened strain within the first decade.

Age data suggested that South Africans are both marrying and divorcing later, with the median age at divorce for men being 46 years and for women 42 years of age.

“The upward shift suggests that individuals are entering marriage later and spending more years together before choosing to end the relationship,” Stats SA said.

The report also highlighted that the highest number of divorces for both men and women falls within the 40–44 age group.

“The highest number of divorces in 2024 occurred among women aged 40 to 44 years, with 4,906 cases representing 20.3% of all female divorcees. Those aged 35 to 39 followed closely with 4,775 divorces accounting for 19.7%. At the other end of the spectrum only 133 divorces representing 0.5%, involved women younger than 25.”

The report further shows that the social consequences of rising divorces are significant particularly for children as 55.7% (13,490) of divorces involved children under 18 and around 22,916 children were affected in 2024.

Provincially, Gauteng continues to record the highest number of divorces with 7,256 cases, followed by the Western Cape at 4,259.

“The data shows that the 13,853 women-led divorce cases were distributed unevenly across the provinces. Gauteng accounted for the largest share with 4,289 divorces initiated by wives representing 31% of the national total. The Western Cape followed at 18.6% (2,579 cases) while KwaZulu-Natal contributed 13.8% (1 910 cases),” Stats SA said.

Other provinces recorded smaller shares with the Northern Cape contributing just 1.3% of women-initiated divorces.

While Black African couples accounted for the highest number of divorces (13,284), the white population group recorded the highest crude divorce rate at 110 per 100,000 residents.

Economic participation also plays a role in divorce patterns particularly among women.

“In 2024, 10,804 of the women who filed for divorce were employed, making up 44.6% of the total. The highest proportions were found among women working in professional, semi-professional and technical occupations. These were followed by those in managerial and administrative roles accounting for 8.4% and women in clerical and sales positions at 7.9%. Access to income and professional stability can expand a person’s capacity to make decisions that serve their own interests including leaving relationships that are no longer working for them, Stats SA said.

At the same time, fewer South Africans are choosing to get married, with the country recording 102,373 marriages and unions in 2024 which is a 2.6% drop from 2023.

Over the longer term, the decline is even more pronounced.

“The data confirms a consistent downward trajectory in marriage registrations across the 10-year period from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a structural and sustained shift in how South Africans approach long-term unions,” said Stats SA.

Compared to 2015 marriages declined by 40,906 which represents a 28.5% decrease over the decade and civil marriages alone dropped to 97,510 in 2024, down 1.8% from 2023.

Stats SA attributed the sharp dip in 2020 to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The drop in the number of registered marriages in 2020 was significant due to the Covid-19 pandemic that caused many couples to postpone weddings due to venue closures, gathering restrictions and health risks, though some opted for smaller ceremonies,” it said.

Marriage trends also show strong seasonal patterns with more people preferring to get married in warmer weather.

“Seasonal variation in the registration of civil marriages shows that generally, warmer months (beginning from September and peaking in December) are the most popular months for solemnising civil marriages in South Africa as in 2024, the highest number of marriages [11,249 (11.5%)] took place in December and the lowest number of marriages, [5,950 (6.1%)] occurred in January,” said Stats SA.

The report also revealed that more than half of civil marriages (55.8%) were officiated by department of home affairs officials while 32.3% were conducted through religious rites.

Stats SA said these figures reflect a broader social shift and a profound shift in how South Africans approach relationships, marriage and personal autonomy.

“Taken together, the steady decline in marriages and unions since 2015 and the rise in divorces initiated by women tell a coherent story about social change. Fewer people are marrying than a decade ago; those who do marry tend to do so later and more women are exercising the freedom to choose relationship outcomes that best serve their well-being. In practical terms, that means having the authority and means to decide whether to stay or leave,” said Stats SA.

TimesLIVE


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