El Niño, a threat elsewhere, likely to help Argentina’s crops, experts say

While intense El Niño conditions could hurt harvests in much of the world, the climate phenomenon is likely to boost agricultural production in Argentina in the second half of the year, climate specialists said.

On Thursday, the US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño conditions will intensify as the second half of 2026 progresses.

The El Niño phenomenon causes warm ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to lower rainfall in large parts of Asia and Australia, and raising fears about diminished global food supplies and higher prices due to droughts.

However, in Argentina, a leading exporter of soybeans, corn and wheat, the phenomenon increases the frequency and intensity of rainfall, which generally favours crop development, climate specialists said.

“The 2026/27 season will be entirely marked by the presence of El Niño and will be a positive factor,” said German Heinzenknecht, meteorologist at the Argentine Applied Climatology Consultancy.

The last intense El Niño occurred in the 2015/16 cycle, when Argentina recorded the second-largest soybean harvest in its history at 59.1-million metric tonnes, and the average corn yield was 7% higher than the average of the past 10 years, according to official data.

“In the agricultural heartland, an area that doesn’t flood because it has good water drainage, El Niño produces very good yields,” said climate specialist Eduardo Sierra.

Corn planting in Argentina will begin in September and soybean planting in October.

The country’s producers are sowing the 2026/27 wheat crop, which could reach 20-million tonnes, according to the Rosario Board of Trade, which would be the third-largest harvest of the cereal for Argentina.

Reuters