The bookmakers have favoured the Stormers to thrash Connacht in Cape Town on Saturday and have given the Lions an advantage against Glasgow’s Warriors. Are they on the money?
No and yes, or yes and no.
It depends on whether you are a Stormer or a Lion. Or back Connacht or Glasgow.
Whatever the outcomes of this weekend’s United Rugby Championship matches, they will be significant in the context of determining home play-off positions.
The Warriors are leading the league, ahead of the second-placed Stormers. The Lions are fifth, the highest they have ever been at this stage of the league season, and Connacht are scrapping for a top eight finish.
Elsewhere, in Ireland, Ulster hosts Leinster in an Irish derby with huge play-off consequence. In Wales, the Bulls must beat the Dragons in Newport to keep pace with those teams chasing a top-four finish and home quarter-final advantage.
The Stormers, with 11 wins from 14, have been given a 20-plus point advantage by the bookies. It is way too generous.
Connacht, of the four Irish provinces in the URC, tends to get the least acknowledgement in South Africa. But they are a quality outfit, well led by former England coach Stuart Lancaster and among the technically more impressive teams in the league.
They are a team that has beaten the Stormers in Galway, their home base, and were a TMO decision away from stunning the Stormers at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town last season.
The Stormers, with 11 wins from 14, have been given a 20-plus point advantage by the bookies. It is way too generous.
The Stormers, despite a powerful league position, have worked for the majority of their 11 wins. If one dissects their season, it is one in which character, a refusal to not get the win and some big plays in clutch moments have delivered a winning result.
It hasn’t been the flamboyant, exhibition-style Stormers of a year ago.
And for good reason.
The squad strengths have demanded a more conservative approach, in which kicking and kick receives have brought reward and winning results.
This is not a Stormers team that blows away opposition or has the ability to tear teams apart. They are a well-functioning unit that understands what it takes to win and are prepared to win in a way that is not necessarily carnival-type box office.
When they have played intelligently and used field position as a launch pad, they have been at their best.
Expect this type of performance against Connacht if the Stormers are to win.
Don’t buy into the hype of a 20-point winning margin. Connacht are too good to lose by 20 points and the Stormers aren’t that good to hammer them by 20 points.
The weather is not expected to be good. The early broadcast kick-off time of 1.45pm in 16 degrees, is unfamiliar for the hosts, and they can’t rely on a core of their home support as all First XV Schools matches in the Western Cape kick off between 12.30pm and 2pm.
Up north, the bookies are backing the Lions to beat the Warriors, who a week ago were being tipped as capable of winning the URC and the Investec Champions Cup title.
The Champions Cup is gone, following a shock 22-19 home defeat against Toulon in a home quarter-final a week ago. While their URC league form has been dominant, they have historically never travelled well in South African league matches.
The exception is the 2022/23 final, when they played the Bulls in the final at Loftus in Pretoria and stunned the hosts in winning the title.
They are one from one in finals in South Africa, but only one from eight in league fixtures.
In the 2021/22 season, they lost to the Stormers in Cape Town and the Bulls in Pretoria. A year later, they lost to the Lions in Johannesburg and the Sharks in Durban. In 2023/24, they lost to the Lions in Johannesburg and the Bulls in Pretoria, before returning to beat the Bulls in the final.
Last season, they beat the Stormers in Stellenbosch and lost to the Sharks.
If the Stormers win and Glasgow lose, the Stormers will be in first place a week ahead of their match-up in Cape Town.
Another win for the Stormers a week later, against Glasgow, would shake up the league table and give South Africa a real shot at having three teams fighting for a top four going into the final fortnight of the competition.
But first things first: those three (Stormers, Lions and Bulls) have to win this weekend.
As for the Sharks — it would be a surprise if they beat the Ospreys in Wales.
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