TOM EATON | With his dumb luck, Trump has booked his dubious place in history

Donald Trump is facing criticism at home ― and raucous laughter abroad ― for agreeing to a peace plan apparently based on the Ayatollah’s vision board. But as he signs what seems to be an American surrender it might be a good time to step back and ask: for all Trump’s myriad failures, whether as a president, a man, a human being or a sentient pork chop, is it nevertheless possible that he will be remembered as one of history’s most significant game changers?

Not that he’s done any of it deliberately, of course: the only things Trump does on purpose are sexual abuse and using the office of the presidency to make himself richer. Still, history is often made by dumb luck, and when it comes to luck ― and dumbness ― Trump seems particularly gifted.

First, consider his historic impact on renewables.

The fantastically stupid war on Iran, launched by Trump at the bequest of Israel, not only caused the global supply of oil to seize up but, more importantly, proved conclusively that the Strait of Hormuz is not a long-term solution to global energy supply.

Over the past three months, renewables have surged and electric vehicles are having a spike in sales, and even if the oil begins to flow again, and shipping returns to pre-war volumes in the coming months, the lesson has been learned: diversify your energy sources or have the fate of your economy decided by the whims of American, Israeli and Iranian warlords.

This is the first great paradox that history will record: Trump, selling off America’s wildernesses as he whoops “Drill baby drill”, and followed by a movement adamant that climate change isn’t real, might have done more for clean, green energy than any human on the planet.

I don’t know if strong continued support for Ukraine might have forced Putin to the table earlier, but I suspect Trump’s careful fence-sitting ― selling some weapons to Europe to give to Ukraine while rolling out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska ― has convinced Putin he can still win his war, a conviction that has effectively trapped him in an attritional, vastly bloody stalemate.

Second, there’s Russia.

The flow of US weapons to Ukraine had begun to slow in the last months of the Biden administration, but under Trump the trickle turned into an erratic drip. Trump’s camp explained that there were concerns over the US’s own stockpiles; critics suggested Trump was trying to help Vladimir Putin, a tyrant Trump regularly described in glowing terms.

Either way, the US decision to scale back its involvement in Ukraine forced the occupied country to adapt, and in the last year, HIMARS weapons systems, F-16 fighter-bombers and Abrams tanks have been bolstered and often replaced by a home-grown drone- and cruise-missile fleet that is reportedly the most advanced and lethal in the world right now, and which can hit Moscow with impunity, as it did this week.

I don’t know if strong continued support for Ukraine might have forced Putin to the table earlier, but I suspect Trump’s careful fence-sitting ― selling some weapons to Europe to give to Ukraine while rolling out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska ― has convinced Putin he can still win his war, a conviction that has effectively trapped him in an attritional, vastly bloody stalemate. And every month he continues his murderous ego trip another 30,000 Russians are killed or maimed, and another nail is hammered into the Russia’s demographic and economic coffin.

And so the second paradox: Trump, the great friend and admirer of Putin, whose supporters wore T-shirts proclaiming “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat,” might be the US president who finally oversees the death spiral of the Putin regime, and quite possibly of Russia in its current form.

Finally, there’s Iran and the Middle East.

At the time of writing the world hadn’t yet been shown the full and final text of the proposed peace deal, and it goes without saying that it could all still fall apart in the coming months.

But judging by the offer of a $300bn recovery fund, and Trump’s statement this week that it would be unfair if Iran wasn’t allowed to have ballistic missiles, it seems clear that Trump and his administration want to bring the Islamic Republic in from the cold.

How this looks remains to be seen, but if Tehran plays ball, by which I mean it is bribed enough and offers enough kickbacks to the Trump regime, it’s not inconceivable that Iran will soon take its place at the table alongside the likes of Saudi Arabia as a corrupt, autocratic petro-state with a real say in world affairs.

If this happens, it will rearrange the region entirely, and no doubt alarm Israel even more, as it faces a world in which its traditional support in the west, especially among young Americans, is cratering.

This mean that a third bizarre paradox is a distinct possibility: that Trump, elected by a party resolute in its support for Israel and loathing for Iran, engineers a new world in which Iran rises at the expense of Israel.

And all of this is to say nothing about AI, fast-tracked by an oligarchy enabled and promoted by Trump, and a late capitalist system hoping to squeeze out one last bonanza before the music stops and the bill comes due …

No, you can say what you like about Trump but I suspect his place in history is already secure as the first pork chop to shift an entire planet.