Polish opposition looks set to oust ruling nationalists in major political shift

Poland's ruling nationalists appeared on Monday to have lost their parliamentary majority in the nation's most pivotal election in decades, potentially opening the way for opposition parties to seize power in what would be a huge political shift.

Poland has repeatedly clashed with the European Union over the rule of law, media freedom, migration and LGBT rights since Law and Justice (PiS) swept to power in 2015, but opposition parties have vowed to mend ties with Brussels and scrap reforms that critics say undermine democratic standards.

An Ipsos exit poll published early on Monday gave PiS 36.6% of the vote, which would translate into 198 lawmakers in the 460-seat lower house of parliament.

Opposition parties, led by the former European Council president Donald Tusk's liberal grouping Civic Coalition (KO), were projected to win a combined 248 seats, with the KO seen winning 31.0% of ballots cast.

Victory for the opposition in a vote seen by analysts as the most significant election for Europe in years could potentially redefine the relationship between Brussels and the largest EU member state in central and eastern Europe.

Polish financial markets surged on the prospect of a government led by pro-EU liberals. The blue-chip WIG 20 share index was up 3.5% at 0849 GMT, while the zloty currency was around 1% firmer.

"The ousting of the nationalists will help to restore damaged relations with the EU," said Lee Hardman, a senior currency analyst at MUFG bank.

"The zloty should continue to strengthen further in the near-term in anticipation of improving relations with the EU that will help to support growth and attract capital inflows."

Tusk has said he would seek to unblock some 110-billion euros (R2.18-trillion) of EU funds earmarked for Poland which have been frozen due to rule-of-law concerns.

LENGTHY COALITION TALKS

Even if official results confirm the exit poll, Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party. However, with the far-right Confederation seen winning just 6.4%, below expectations, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or any other senior PiS politician will struggle to forge a new government.

The leader of the centre-right Polish Peasants' Party (PSL), part of Third Way, ruled out on Monday joining a PiS-led coalition.

"People who voted for us wanted change, they wanted PiS removed from power," Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told private radio RMF FM.

Poland's electoral commission put turnout in Sunday's vote at 72%, based on partial results, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989, underlining the high stakes of this election.

Television footage showed several hundred, mostly young people queuing outside one polling station in the western city of Wrocław. It closed just before 3am (0100 GMT), some six hours after voting was officially meant to end.

In an aggressive campaign in which it sought to paint Tusk as a German stooge, PiS cast the election as a choice between uncontrolled illegal migration under the rule of leaders beholden to foreign interests and a government that would protect Poland's borders, security and traditions.

However, PiS faced mounting discontent over what critics said was democratic backsliding and an erosion of women's rights after the government enforced a near-total abortion ban in 2021.

PiS was also accused of using lucrative positions in state-controlled firms to reward supporters and of fueling inflation with loose fiscal policies.

"I expect that women will now have more rights, that they will feel safer," said Iga Frackiewicz, 43, a banking administrator. "I also hope that the nepotism will end, for example in state companies and in other places."