Hit men may be back on the job in SA

Only one in 10 political killings, with targets including whistle-blowers, leads to a conviction

In the political report to its 11th national congress in September, Cosatu referred to the "emergence of death squads in several provinces, linked to corruption, and the murder of people who have taken a stand, or have whistle blown".

In addition to one killing in North West and four in KwaZulu-Natal, the report refers to 14 murders in Mpumalanga between 1998 and 2011. Many of those killed in Mpumalanga had been trying to expose corruption in government structures.

But for some reason, the trade union federation's report dramatically under-represents the number of political killings in KwaZulu-Natal.

In fact, since December 2008 there have been at least 42 deaths in 36 incidents of suspected political murders in the province.

In addition, there have been at least three attempted assassinations.

The 42 people killed have included 19 ANC members and six from the Inkatha Freedom Party, as well as at least two indunas and one employee of the Department of Transport.

And 11 National Freedom Party members have been murdered since that party's formation in February 2011.

Of the people killed for what appear to be political reasons since the end of 2008, 86% have been in KwaZulu-Natal.

The majority of political assassinations that have taken place in South Africa since 1998 appear to be what can be termed "politically protected killings" (PPKs) - murders carried out with the blessing of the state.

Such killings may include lawful killings - such as the use of lethal force by the police - and the unlawful assassination of people understood to pose a threat to established political interests.

The perpetrators in both instances are generally guaranteed that they will not face legal consequences for their acts.

There has been one conviction so far for the 14 killings in Mpumalanga between 1998 and 2011, and four convictions in KwaZulu-Natal for the 42 murders.

For the 19 ANC members killed, there have so far been two convictions: one for a murder in December 2008 and one for a double murder last month.

The aftermath of a protected killing may also be characterised by:

Statements from political formations. These may express genuine outrage, or may be an attempt at "damage control" by those behind the killings;

Disinformation about the reasons for the killing, or attempts to pin the case on innocent people. This may extend to murdering alleged suspects, thus avoiding the need to prove the case against them in court;

The killing or intimidation of witnesses; and

The suspicious "loss" of evidence.

Sometimes things go wrong, and evidence emerges linking the perpetrators to the murder. There may then be steps to "fix" the result so that the perpetrator is either acquitted or receives a slap on the wrist.

Even if convicted, the perpetrator may continue to receive favourable treatment.

Those who are found guilty are generally only "low-hanging fruit", and the powerful people behind the assassination remain untouched.

One of the consequences of PPKs may be that people start to believe there is a general licence for political killings - but in fact this may only be available to people in certain political positions.

The rapid arrest of the perpetrator of an unprotected killing may help to maintain the facade that the state takes political murders seriously.

Another characteristic of PPKs may be official indifference to pursuing the case against the alleged killers. In March 2009, for instance, Rustenburg ANC councillor Moss Phakoe was found shot dead in his car. At the time, Phakoe and ANC councillor Alfred Motsi were trying to expose corruption involving Rustenburg mayor Matthew Wolmarans.

According to a report by journalist Jacques Pauw, the investigation into Phakoe's death initially went nowhere. The special task team appointed to probe the assassination was headed by Tsietsi Mano, a confidant of disgraced former SAPS crime intelligence chief Richard Mdluli.

Mdluli, it must be remembered, was appointed head of crime intelligence in an irregular procedure when he was already suspected of murder. And in 2011, evidence also came to light that he had been involved in corruption after becoming head of crime intelligence.

However, a Hawks investigation against him was terminated on the instructions of Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa.

When the Hawks raided Mdluli's office in 2011, they allegedly found the Phakoe docket "gathering dust ". It was handed to a Hawks special task team. In July this year, Wolmarans and his driver were convicted of Phakoe's murder: this was a clear-cut, politically motivated assassination.

The court was told that Wolmarans had been with Mthethwa when he received the message that Phakoe had been killed. Despite his conviction, Wolmarans continued to receive his salary as mayor of Rustenburg.

Since the beginning of 2011, the murder of people with high political profiles has been confined almost exclusively to KwaZulu-Natal, with 27 in the province since February 2011.

PPKs are generally of people who put established interests at risk, such as journalists or whistle-blowers who threaten to reveal "sensitive" information.

PPKs may also punish acts of "disloyalty" by people who had been regarded as political allies. And these political hits may be committed because of the risk of others following their example. The assassinations may therefore be intended to send a message about the consequences of doing certain things or taking a certain position.

Though they are not the majority, the most high-profile assassinations are those of people who not only challenge established interests, but have a high level of credibility with the public.

These are often people who are charismatic, and therefore have the potential to attract substantial popular support.

Though he is frequently ridiculed by much of the mainstream media, Julius Malema falls in this category. Last month, one of the members of Malema's entourage alleged he had overheard a member of the SAPS saying that they wanted to "isolate and kill" Malema when he was trying to get access to striking miners at Marikana.

If it is true that there was indeed the intention to kill Malema during the police operation at Marikana, this would be a matter of the most serious kind.

It would indicate that the machinery of the state has been mobilised to carry out political assassinations.

• Bruce is an independent researcher on crime and policing