So Many Questions: Helmoed Heitman

Parliament has heard that South Africa's fighter planes and helicopters are in storage because there is no money to fly them. Chris Barron asked military analyst Helmoed Heitman

What do you make of it all?

The problem is the cabinet decided way back in 1999 to buy equipment. The undertaking was that the defence budget would later be adjusted to actually allow the operation of the stuff.

Why did that not happen?

The defence review of 1998-99 worked on the assumption that we'd never operate outside of South Africa.

So why did we need the equipment?

You need a core force so that, if the region ever becomes really unstable, you can build from that small force to a bigger one.

R70-billion on a core force?

Well, yes. If you get rid of it, it takes 30 years to build a defence force. Nobody gives you 30 years' warning of a threat.

What threat?

Nobody knows 30 years down the line, do they?

You've always supported the arms deal ...

I would have bought slightly different things. But in principle I believe we should have at least a basic capability.

How much will this cost us every year?

Just to do what we're doing now, we should be spending at least R60-billion a year. We're spending R40-billion.

Which can't keep our planes in the air or submarines at sea?

Partly because a lot of money is being spent on personnel we don't need, but nobody wants to discharge them.

Where is the R60-billion you talk so glibly about going to come from?

Looking at the amount of waste in the rest of government, I think it should be fairly easy to find.

Even if it is, surely poverty is a more immediate threat than any military attack?

Until it comes. And then people squeak: "How the hell could you let the defence force run down the way you did?" Our biggest threat is youth unemployment. To deal with it we need massive foreign fixed capital investment, which we are not going to get if the region around us unravels. So we have to stabilise our immediate background at least.

We need a R60-billion-a-year defence force for that?

For peace enforcement, anti-piracy operations ...

Surely the harsh reality is that we don't have that kind of money?

I would argue the government does.

And if it would rather spend it elsewhere?

If we stay with R40-billion, we can either continue pretending to be a defence force or scale right down, patrol only in our own waters, sustain one peacekeeping operation and do the border. To be effective at R40-billion we need to get 20000 people out of the defence force. At R40-billion, the defence industry will no longer be sustained and will lose 15000 jobs, the current net forex inflow from defence exports will evaporate and we'll be importing all our equipment at the rate of R4-billion a year.

Is the defence force as it stands now able to carry out its constitutional obligations to the country?

For the next two years, yes. If we go on as we are, then after that, no.

How can it defend us even now when its fighter planes are in cold storage?

We could get our Gripen and Rooivalk squadrons operating within a few months.

Where are the combat-ready pilots?

They're not combat ready, but they can be brought back up to speed within a matter of months. But wait another year or two and we'll have lost them.

Unless there's a change of attitude, we're going to lose all our pilots?

The pilots, the mission controllers, the navigators and technicians, yes.

What about the combat readiness of our soldiers?

Discipline is a bit tricky, because we no longer have the senior non-commissioned officers - the old crusty arse with the big moustache and bull voice.

What happened?

Post integration, the remaining white NCOs were not prepared to discipline the Apla and MK guys, and Apla weren't prepared to discipline MK and vice versa.

So there's no discipline in the army?

Individual discipline is an issue. Combat discipline is fine. Virtually every contact they've had - Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Darfur, Bangui - they've come out on top and given the other guys a bloody nose. Our junior officers are top line.

Given financial constraints, what kind of defence force should we be concentrating on?

My immediate priority would be to sort out border protection, which also means getting our fighters back in the air, and coastal patrols. That and giving our special forces more capabilities.