In its 30-year history in government and 114 years of liberation struggle and hegemonic leadership, the ANC has not faced an existential threat more acute than that posed by the upcoming local government elections.
The party faces voters burdened by a fierce succession battle that is influencing its choices and decisions about how to win support.
It is no secret that the ANC is aware of its limitations in putting forward candidates who will be beyond reproach and demonstrate ethical and integrity-based leadership. Addressing this openly can help voters feel reassured and confident in the party’s commitment to change. “We need to have the wisdom and resolve to deploy the best among us” is the clarion call, but the proof will be seen in the candidate lists.
Instead of the election campaign being about the innovations society should expect from the ANC, the messaging from its leaders is more about what they will no longer be doing. “We cannot compromise on accountability … and must refuse to accept poor performance,” said party president Cyril Ramaphosa.
The go-to voter issues of clean water, a reliable electricity supply, public infrastructure maintenance, poverty, unemployment and access to health care are not receiving the attention they deserve
The go-to voter issues of clean water, a reliable electricity supply, public infrastructure maintenance, poverty, unemployment and access to health care are not receiving the attention they deserve. Addressing these issues is crucial. The moment has arrived when the ANC’s promises should meet the reality of service delivery. It must change how it operates or risk losing political power.
The local elections will serve as a predictor of the outcomes of the 2029 national and provincial elections, which the ANC appears unprepared for. Compounding the political context will be the party’s December 2027 elective conference outcome on who leads Africa’s oldest liberation movement.
The ANC’s identity as the people’s liberator is challenged by its current image, which now includes being rated the 16th most corrupt organisation globally, threatening its historical support base.
The countless reports of malfeasance by ANC deployees are realities it must deal with before the 2029 election.
The carving of black voter support from the ANC by identity-vote-dependent parties and coalitions targeting the black middle class is the new reality. History and nostalgia have created a cult-like behaviour that is on a collision course with actual voter demands. It might have to recalibrate its sensitivity to the new voter when finalising its candidate lists.
The ANC’s campaign style has not changed. The idea of making the ANC the issue rather than the vexing service delivery problems is one of the most significant setbacks in its history of garnering societal support in local communities. It is a throwback to the years of an ANC with a high legitimacy rating, a massive Nelson Mandela political dividend and an electorate in a post-liberation euphoria trance that gave leaders carte blanche on policy. Now, voters’ accountability sensitivity is on steroids.
The essence of emerging political rhetoric, mainly driven by a nostalgic political generation, is to hark back to the ANC of Oliver Tambo with the hope of attracting the post-1994 generation to vote for it. In this historical phase ahead of the local government elections, messaging should be couched as a continuum narrative whose true outcome must include electoral performance in 2029. It needs to ensure its 2024 40% is maintained as a launching pad for 2029 via the 2026 local government refreshment station.
At present, the ANC has insufficient capacity to refortify its hegemony and focus society on the long-term promise of liberation. There is therefore a need to stratify ANC constituencies and tailor messages to each. Recognising the diverse aspirations within the broad ANC, it is essential to connect with different groups to foster a sense of being understood and valued.
As a cathedral, it has the whole of South Africa as a constituency to target with a message of hope. For that, the country’s constitution is the fundamental ideological pillar. As a liberation movement, it must communicate how to redress past injustices, list them, posit an alternative that could constitute justice, and ensure that social and economic justice for all is realised. As a political party, it must invest to become an electioneering machine focused on political term-based objectives, renewable every five years.
• Dr FM Lucky Mathebula is the head of faculty, People Management, and founder of The Thinc Foundation, a think-tank based at the Da Vinci Institute
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.