PALI LEHOHLA

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (Sona) requires a forensic examination to ensure its claims are rooted in verifiable statistics and aligned with national development priorities.

The forensic assessment draws from the 3,000-plus past columns that I wrote from September 28 2002. They are encoded and are part of a collation of the 2,752 instruments that constitute the Lehohla Ledger.

The instruments are effectively the District Development Model instruments of integration, but they run much deeper below the district. These instruments are the development planning code that the country needs to drag itself out of this man-made hole we are stuck in, as though we are not well endowed with resources to get out of this malady.

The Lehohla Ledger measures 120,000 cross-sectional nodes that are welded into a three-decade timeseries data mesh. This makes the Ledger a truly integrative framework of the District Development Model. This is where Morena Mohlomi’s commandment of intergenerational value-creation through integrated reporting is anchored and can be tested for validity. It is in that space that the president needs to look for ‘Tintswalo’.

The analysis reveals a potential disconnect between reported successes and the lived experiences of South African citizens, particularly concerning employment, service delivery and economic policy coherence. A strategic recalibration is necessary to shift from input-based reporting to impact-driven governance, ensuring that policy decisions are informed by data and contribute to tangible improvements in the lives of all South Africans.

Forensic analysis of the 2026 Sona

The effectiveness of the state of the nation address (Sona) hinges on its ability to accurately reflect the nation’s progress towards a better life, supported by official statistics rather than ‘in-my-shelf-type numbers’. The reliance on potentially misleading input measures, rather than verifiable impact indicators, undermines the credibility of the address.
The alignment of policy with stated national priorities, such as addressing poverty, inequality and unemployment (the ‘triple challenge’), is crucial for effective governance. The budget speech’s focus on debt reduction, at the expense of addressing the triple challenge, raises concerns about policy incoherence and a potential ‘Gwara-Gwara’ scenario of demoralisation and decay.
Effective governance also requires coherent strategic planning, rigorous implementation and consistent monitoring, driven by data and competence. The proliferation of ‘plans’ that fail to hang together suggests a lack of strategic foresight and a failure to translate plans into tangible outcomes.
Transparency and accountability in political funding are essential for maintaining the integrity of the electoral process. Scrutinising political party funding sources is crucial for ensuring constitutional democracy.
Government intervention is crucial for de-risking the private sector and facilitating access to credit, especially for township entrepreneurs. The Sona should address the need for credit extension and the elimination of red tape for township entrepreneurs.
Evidence-based planning using statistical modelling is crucial for effective and inclusive economic policy. The use of statistical tools in long-term planning processes is essential for aligning planned initiatives with statistically modelled outcomes.
Proactive and meticulous planning is essential for effective governance and risk mitigation. Disaster management plans should integrate drainage infrastructure maintenance, risk assessments and community safety protocols.
Strategic foresight and scenario planning are essential for effective governance and resource allocation. The abandonment of scenario planning increases vulnerability to corruption and mismanagement.

Strategic advice

The Lehohla Ledger provides focused advice on the eight assessment points that could form a different Sona 2026.

Phase	Instrument & Principle	Actionable Step
1: Statistical Validation	Impact-based governance requires verifiable statistics	Cross-reference SONA claims with StatsSA data (QLFS, GDP, poverty stats).
2: Policy Alignment	Alignment of policy with stated national priorities	Audit budget allocations against NDP goals and commitments to address the triple challenge.
3: Strategic Planning	Effective governance requires coherent strategic planning	Review national, provincial, and municipal strategic plans for overlaps, inconsistencies, and gaps.
4: Transparency	Transparency and accountability in political funding	Audit political party funding sources for conflicts of interest and compliance with electoral regulations.
5: Economic Intervention	Government intervention for de-risking the private sector	Analyse municipal credit extension programs for township entrepreneurs and alignment with stokvel financing models.
6: Evidence-Based Planning	Evidence-based planning using statistical modelling	Verify the use of statistical tools in long-term planning processes.
7: Risk Mitigation	Proactive and meticulous planning for effective governance	Review municipal disaster management plans for drainage infrastructure maintenance, risk assessments and community safety protocols.
8: Strategic Foresight	Strategic foresight and scenario planning	A link for the full list of sources of instruments and the background evidence is provided below

Dr Pali Lehohla is a professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg, a research associate at Oxford University and a distinguished alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former statistician-general of South Africa